But what will the impact of Covid-19 be in the future when the virus has gone?
This project aims to “understand changes to travel caused by COVID-19 and their long-term implications for Melbourne and its infrastructure”
The new theoretical contribution to knowledge concerns the impact of significant shocks to travel caused by major events like the C-19 crisis. From a planning practice a major benefit of the project is a better understanding of travel demand futures.The project has three analytical components
- Melbourne travel impact monitoring: a. Pre-Shutdown b. Shutdown c. Post Shutdown and d. Post Pandemic
- Forecasting post pandemic impacts is a central focus of the research
- In about a year which is either c. Post Shutdown or d. Post Pandemic ; checking actual changes and how they might inform our forecasting methodology
Mechanisms to explain observed travel changes, and which may help predict changes into the future, will be explored using theories from:
- Travel behaviour change
- Impacts of life course events on habitual travel where relevant
- Impacts of unplanned events (strikes, disasters)
The project has two major phases of primary research including interviews exploring impacts with members of the community and an extensive online questionnaire.
Links to recent ouputs:
- Free Open Access Publication: Currie G, Jain T and Aston L (2021) “Evidence of a Post-COVID Change in Travel Behaviour – Self-Reported Expectations of Commuting in Melbourne” Transportation Research Part A Volume 153, November 2021, Pages 218-234
- Free Open Access Publication: Jain T, Currie G and Aston L (2022) “COVID and working from home: Long-term impacts and psycho-social determinants” Transportation Research Part A Volume 156, February 2022, Pages 52-68
- Video of Phase One/Two Results – Presentation to AITPM, ITE and Engineers Australia 8-10-2020; Debate with Prof David Hensher. Also separate Question and Answer Video Session.
- Early Findings Video – Presented at a TU Delft Webinar
- Interim Report – June 2020
- Researching Transit Podcast on preliminary results
- ABC National TV interview on the research.
- Monash Lens news piece on the topic.
- Committee for Melbourne Webinar presentation and discussion of our early findings.